Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Gold 1197.2

This is a weekly Gold futures chart

Gold weekly 2013-06-26

And the next line of support is at 1197.2. The 61.8% retracement of the whole upswing starting in 2008 at 733. We are on the way. I don’t like catching falling knifes. They hurt. But that level is tempting, very tempting!

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Anticipating a cross

Gold was trading up from a recent new low, made a retest attempt which failed and the Tenkan-Sen (blue) was forming the right side of a bowl below the flat Kinjun-Sen (orange).

Gold 15min 2013-06-25

I took the trade, when the Kinjun-Sen on the 5 Minute came near the Tenkan-Sen expecting a bounce up.

Gold 5min 2013-06-25

It actually took a bit longer, but the cross of the Tenkan above the Kinjun on the 15 Minute chart was the signal for a nice move up. As 1285 proved to be resistance yesterday, I moved my stop 1285.10 when we traded to the high of that move.

You need to give your trade room to work, but, and here I requote a tweet I saw yesterday:

Its better to be out of a trade wishing you were in, than being in a trade and wishing you were out! Have the patience of a crocodile!”

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Catching falling knives

I’m not made for catching falling knives!

DAX 1min 2013-06-19

8 min below my entry with PA looking as if we will break down further any minute.

Of course a prior look at the 60min would have told me that the entry should have been at 8218.5 and not 8225!

DAX 60min 2013-06-19

Slam-dunk into the 60 minute Kinjun-Sen

5 Minutes later:

Of course you always need to set a stop!!!!

DAX 1min 2013-06-19-1

Tuesday, June 18, 2013


YM-DAX-ES 60min 2013-06-18

The Dow and the S&P marcherd on this afternoon, but the DAX … it couldn’t make a new intraday high, even with the Dow trading 75 and the S&P going 8 full point above the morning highs. We will know in less than 24h who is right…

DAX still in a downtrend

DAX 60min 2013-06-18

EUR/AUD topping formation

EURAUD daily 2013-06-18

Waiting for a lower low or red candle below the recent high after EUR/AUD made the 100% extension of the previous swing.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Dax on a roll

Gap down – test – reverse – right now 200 points from the low

Dax 60min 2013-06-14

I expect to see resistance at/below the 8200 level with the USDYEN breaking down again, but it’s Friday and anything can (and will) happen.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013


Dax needs to take out 8233 for shorts to work. Trade protected in the money, let’s see what will happen…

DAX 15min 2013-06-11

Stopped at 8339…back to earth

Friday, June 07, 2013

EUR/AUD, Stops and Platinum trade

Euro / Australian Dollar went vertical with the breakdown of the Australian Dollar and the resurgence of the Euro. But after the NFP Event this afternoon, it might be time for a breather. 1.40 has been hit and a failed retest should provide a low risk / high reward entry short.

EURAUD overview 2013-06-07

Add-On: I had a short open over the weekend from the close and got stopped at the gap-up sunday night.

Finish 2013-06-11:

EURAUD 60 min 2013-06-11

EURAUD 15 min 2013-06-11

I have to admit    I DON’T LIKE STOPS

and probably I never will, contrary to all advise given in trading books, articles, and so on.

But over time I learned, that I can’t be right all the time. it’s the same in every profession. You can’t be right 100% and in trading the cost of doing business is taking stops. If I take a stop in one instrument usually I switch the instrument from Forex to indices or commodities.

Because the reason why I took a trade doesn’t change when I take a stop.

And the reason is: There is a signal to take the trade. On the 15min chart above, I had a signal to go short and to add. Unfortunatly, having a signal means, I’m reading the market as well. I see how the market reacts, how it trades and that enforces a belief, that I’m right. I’m right about the market, I’m right about my reading of the market. But if I have to take a stop, I’m usually not. Which means I have to neutralise my reading of the market. Something I can’t do within minutes. Which means, it’s best to trade something else.

Yesterday I was stopped in the DAX right before a huge move up

DAX 5min 2016-06-10

I was right, but I trailed too fast, as I was in that trade 45 minutes on the brink of getting stopped. So I trailed when I had the chance and got stopped out. 10 minutes after my stop, I did not reenter on the clear long signal, as my belief in my reading of the market was shaken. That in itself was my signal to let DAX be for the day. I missed a huge day, but following Twitter #DAX, as I do, it wasn’t easy to trade DAX yesterday.

Me, I traded Platinum for a change. Search for “Lonmin” on Twitter, if you need to know, if there are any news eventually moving Platinum. AFAIK, it’s the biggest and meanest Platinum mine worldwide and any news from there will move the price.

Platinum 5min 2013-06-11

Platinum 30min 2013-06-11

It took some time, I did not enter at a good spot, but I anticipated a signal on the 30minute, something I should avoid in the future. 2 hours later the Kinjun-Sen crossed the Tenkan-Sen, there was still time to enter at my entry level and risk/reward would have been a lot better.

Btw: Platinum futures trade with a huge spread at times, be careful and only trade with limit orders, as you need to know, that 1 tick is worth just 5$ and not 10$ as with gold.

Platinum Matrix 2013-06-11

What about Gold

There were some major spikes yesterday in Gold thanks to that resurgence of Yen appetite. But let’s put that into perspective.

The 4 hour and the daily chart tell the story.

Gold 4h 2013-06-06Gold daily 2013-06-06

The 4 hour cloud supports, the daily cloud shows a clear stairstep pattern down and unless we close above 1471, the trend will remain down. Any cross of the Kinjun-sen above the Tenkan-Sen will be a weak signal, even if we might get a similiar pattern on the daily as seen on the 4 hour. It’s a bottom building pattern and that takes a lot of time to develop. We can see higher lows on the swings, so I will look to trade the dips to the upside for now. But I expect any advances, any spikes still to be sold heavily.

Wednesday, June 05, 2013


Any bounce today and it will be a bounce from the daily Tenkan-sen. Let’s wait and see what the Beige Book brings later today.

Dax daily 2013-06-05

Monday, June 03, 2013

FDAX pushing through the cloud

I took a Long against the 5 minute cloud.

FDAX 5min 2013-06-03

As you can see, there was a test of that 8280 5min cloudbarrier, followed by a sweet spike through the cloud right into my target. (The early morning long was taken from round number support, btw.)

FDAX on June 3rd

I’m following the open of the FDAX this morning, which saw the Nikkei down another 3.7% overnight.

FDAX overview 2013-06-03

Intraday we’re standing right at the cliff. Another attempt to break 8300, with new lows just made and a bounce back above 8300. Looking at the daily (upper left chart) I see the Tenkan-Sen at 8167. That’s far away for now, but a level to keep in mind. So I’m taking a look at a 8h chart and here I see a steep cloud coming into play in the next 2 days. This cloud was formed by the impressive uptrend in May, which tells me, there will be a lot of buyers, who missed that last move or who will be buyers again after a dip. Even if everything screams Short, as every oscillator tells us we are overbought, I don’t think so. For now we are consolidating in an Uptrend, which means every dip will be bought again.

Sunday, June 02, 2013

Sell in May and go away

Maybe that’s what these Friday MOC orders were all about.

ES 15min 2013-05-31

It did some damage, but ES stopped right at the daily Tenkan-sen.

ES daily 2013-05-31

If we manage to bounce on Monday, sweet. The weekend doomsayer are proven wrong again. If not, cloud support on the daily is another 70 points lower. And as long as that cloud is not broken, the trend remains bullish.

Looking at other markets, it seems the US-Dollar is getting stronger every day…

Overview daily 2013-06-01

Not only against the Euro, British Pound, Yen and Australian Dollar, but also against the metals, oil or bonds.

For daytraders, the daily picture is a reminder of the prevailing trend, but nothing to actually trade.

That’s why I usually look at the 240 Minute and 60 Minute charts.

(240 Minute)

Overview 240min 2013-06-01

(60 Minute)

Overview 60min 2013-06-01

And here the picture is not as onesided pro US-Dollar. We might see a continuation of the Friday afternoon moves in the metals Sunday night at the open. But in the currencies and the bonds there might be a bounce against the US-Dollar before the trend resumes.