Wednesday, July 31, 2013

EUR/GBP summertime

It’s summertime. Expect fast, sudden moves, which retrace without reason, no volume, no moves for hours. Go away, as noone is in town. It might be the best advice for the next 5 weeks.

But if not, trade 1/2 size, take the longer view.

EUR/GBP is trading at highs prior the the FED and ECB decisions due later today and tomorrow. Monday the Pound took a swandive, while the Euro held. The Euro area is in no better shape than the british economy. No reason for the exchange-rate to make a sudden huge move. But in a low volume environment it sure is possible to move first the GBP/USD and then a day or 2 later the EUR/USD, producing a wide swing in the cross.

The daily is testing a breakout level and might actually try a run up.

EURGBP daily 2013-07-31

But that’s not the whole picture. Looking at the daily, you want to look at the weekly as well.

EURGBP weekly 2007-2013-07-31-2

And here we see some warning flags: The Tenkan crossing below the Kinjun and a falling trendline around 0.8750. And that’s not the only trendline we can draw.

EURGBP weekly 2007-2013-07-31

Looking at a weekly chart starting in 2007 we see a huge triangle, which was broken to the upside in April 2011, but later resolved to the downside only to test the support becoming resistance blue line right now again.

This fuzzy resistance is around 0.88 right now, right where the EURGBP started trading 15 years back.

EURGBP monthly 2007-2013-07-31

But enough, the FED is coming up tonight and I want to trade the retracement of an extreme move

EURGBP 15min 2013-07-31

The breaking of the cloud will trigger my short entry, as will a touch of the 0.8750 , 0.8775 and 0.8800 levels for a return to 0.8550.

EURGBP daily 2013-07-31-3

Monday, July 22, 2013

Oil running into resistance

Here’s a weekly oil-chart

Oil weekly 2013-07-22

Excluding the huge runup and fall, the 110 area has been resistance for a long time. We had spikes above, but retraced them usually after the hurricane season into the october lows. If 110 can clear, then we run into yearly resistance at 117 and 123.

Oil weekly 2013-07-22-2

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Gold update

Spike to the upside … but still in Range

Gold 60min 2017-07-17

Gold bulls need to take out 1302 it seems.

Gold knocking at 1300

Gold had huge resistance at 1398 in June 2013. It held and we saw Gold plummet to 1180. A similiar situation seems to present itself right now. Gold is trying, but unable to rise above 1298 so far. And we hear, that speculative short interest in Gold is huge. But this huge short interest is commited, the trade is made. It’s up to the traders on the sidelines, the not commited traders to move the price. And the charts paint a different picture at 1298 compared to 1398. I see higher lows (and higher highs) in Gold, I see rising cloud support and I know, there is huge short squeeze potential (yes I got squeezed at 1230 and man, was I glad, I had my stops in the market, waking up with Gold trading up to 1258 in the Asian session).

Today Mr. Bernanke is speaking ….

again and it might be, that it’s that lottery again: Slam or Squeeze +/- 50 in a minute

Until then nothing is decided, gold will drift around with a downward bias for the moment, trading up again into the US-Session and in hindsight everything will be clear again.

Gold 120min 2013-07-17

Friday, July 05, 2013

Draghi, low interest rates and the Bund

Mr. ECB commited the ECB to low interest rates for an extensive period of time. The German Bund futures reacted by jumping 1 full point from 142 upto 143.

FGBL 60min 2013-07-05

But 18 hours later we are back down to 142.30. Something one wouldn’t expect, if rates remain low for an undetermined period of time. Bund traders might be squirmish about the NFP data released later today, but for now it seems the market might call the ECB’s hand by taking interest rates higher regardless of Draghi’s words.

Thursday, July 04, 2013



Long 7970 at 10:00  ….   stopped                                                            Short 7915 at 11:00   ….   stopped  Dax 5min 2013-07-04

Its better to be out of a trade wishing you were in, than being in a trade and wishing you were out!

Have the patience of a crocodile!

Tuesday, July 02, 2013

13 years DAX monthly

Dax monthly 2013-07-02

DAX failed at the 3rd attempt to break the highs for now. We have a very steep trendline supporting the from 5000 up to 8500. In the coming months I expect another test of the highs, like we saw in the second half of 2007 with support at 7700, but it’s make or imho more likely deep break into next year to the cloud support around 6500.