Thursday, February 16, 2006

Euro/USD analysis

There is a lot of speculation, that the EuroUSD is headed lower. But my 240min chart paint's a slightly different picture.

We had a range breakout to 1.2359, followed by EuroUSD falling back into the 1.2200-1.2050 range. A testing of this range and EuroUSD forming a stairstep pattern down with 3 lower Lows and Lower Highs. The 3rd LL saw an inverted Head&Shoulders pattern forming and failing.
Now EuroUSD made a 4th LL and is again forming a possible inverted H&S pattern with strong support at the 1.1850 level, which marked the range low a few times in 2005.
Yesterdays spike after the capital inflows news ran directly into resistance, was rejected and EuroUSD headed back to the lows on Bernanke's speech to congress.

But EuroUSD made no new low. In fact it made a higher low, forming a possible right shoulder. My new BB crossover indicator shows support coming into EuroUSD at these levels even when the overall trend still seems to point straight down.
Therefore I think a EuroUSD long today with a Stop around 1.1870 / 1.1850 depending on the entry might be a good tradeplan.