Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Trader's Paralysis

I don’t have a problem taking a trade…usually.

But there is one setup, which triggers an inability to press the button, to take the trade. I can’t, I sit there, asking myself, Chris, what is holding you back, go on, do it. And when I finally Do it, I go long the high or short the low.

What triggers it:

Missing this move?

NO! I missed it, I wasn’t in, I don’t jump into a running trade.

Here is the real setup, which let me miss a lot of ticks in the Euro today:

I take the entry and get stopped out on a wiggle, only to see it bounce back up.

Kick in: You shall not chase rule
Reentry opportunity missed due to being stopped already 3 times. I think, this earlier resistance is now support, but “I know” it will not hold. Add to that scenario a slow tape and I don’t take the trade.

Why? Because it failed so often in the past.

This time it worked wonderfully. While I’m writing this the ER2 is another 3 points upgoing for a straight run from 662.50 to 669.00. I saw it and I missed all of it. Am I dumb not to chase? Maybe, but taking the short would be worse. So maybe it’s “just” fatigue setting in, my mind telling me to take a rest. The markets are there tomorrow as well.

I see a lot of rules Kick-In when deciding whether I take the trade or not. EG: I saw a great setup in the Euro here:

Usually I take the trade, no questions asked. But I asked myself before I pressed the trigger:
How far has the Euro run today? 130 ticks, that’s too far, this setup will most likely fail! It’s a red light!
And right I was: