Thursday, June 26, 2008

Monthly Euro-Yen

Euro-Yen is approaching a big round number.



Here you have a monthly Euro-Yen. As you can see we have a very strong setup, but we are also at a possible monthly double-top area.


And Euro-Yen has already made the second target in this upmove, projected from the consolidation period in the pair from 2003 to 2005.

So we should prepare for a leg-down, before Euro-Yen starts to rally ahead to take out the new targets projected by the current consolidation area, which started back in mid 2007.


Of course timing the top and the start of the leg-down to the 50% retracement area near 159.00 isn't so easy from a monthly chart. Still looking at the 2003-2005 consolidation area might offer clues:


The second high made there was 141.54, before Euro-Yen started the leg-down to the 50% retracement area, which was followed by the leg-up to current highs.

I will watch Euro-Yen for a test of 171.50 and place some shorts there or more likely buy some puts once we are near that area, as I found, that timing longer term tops with options is easier for the mind than trading futures, which I hold intraday only.

Of course the scenario calls for a High Failure Pattern at 171.50, meaning Euro-Yen should better drop below 169 until the end of the month or we have a close above a previous all time monthly high, which would make the 169 to 170 area a very strong support zone.