Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Trading your account

I said, we see unprecedented moves in currencies in my last post, but I failed to recognize a spike when I saw one.


1.3150 would have been the right spot to go back into the USD. As you can see the Euro came back to the 1.29 level quite fast, actually it bounced at the 50% line and I stayed in the trade, Euro broke further overnight on October 31st, but held the bottom above 1.2650. The Euro tried a swing up, but failed breaking the 50% line a second time and I went long USD in my account at 1.2720. The Euro continued the 60min down pattern and may actually test the 1.2350 lows prior to the rate decision on Thursday, which might cause a relief rally, as I don't see Trichet cutting by 1% as some market participants seem to price in right now.

One thing to remember, when trading your account that way is, that you are never short. You are always long one currency or another and by going into your home currency you go flat and take a time out.

...... 6 hours later


and it cost me big today, as I trade the euro on the short side for most of the morning.


I failed to recognize this huge buying wave. Yes you ask, how? I was biased I guess. And that bias cost me in a row of stopped short trades in the futures. The account is back into euro at 1.2820 and we will see what develops after the election.