Monday, March 30, 2009


Where we going from here?

The Euro took a dive the last 2 days and me being in the Euro in my account have to ask myself, where are we going. I'm a daytrader, I know not a lot about swing trading, still I need to, as my account holdings have to be in a currency and I like my holdings to work in my favor not against me. So if the Euro weakens against the USD, I go into the USD, if it is strong, well I remain in the Euro. Or is there another currency, which is even better suited to be in, which is going up against the USD and the Euro. Gold comes to mind, but gold is too volatile, I trade gold, but I don't put my account holdings in gold.

As I said I'm no swing trader, so I stay away from other currencies than the Euro or the USD. Otherwise it gets really complicated and I don't like it complicated.

Which means I just have to answer these questions daily and every weekend:

Shall I switch from Euro to USD or USD to Euro or shall I hold. Where is the point, where I reverse the account from one currency to the other.

Currently I am long from the 1.2570 area, but that might change. Take a look at this daily Euro chart:


There is something about to happen. That triangle will break. To the upside or the downside. Chart analysis tells you that such triangles tend to break to the downside, but before we jump to conclusions, let's take a look at the longer time charts.

A monthly and a weekly chart:



Monthly oversold, the weekly barely out of being oversold and showing a double bottom.

And the 240min chart (below) shows the Euro above the 50% retracement, which is around 1.3100


We might have a good flat top here, but as I'm not daytrading my account itself, I think I will keep the account 66% Euro for a while longer, actually I might go 100% at the 1.3100 level and keep that until that green line is broken to the downside for a 100% USD reversal below 1.3000.