Wednesday, April 13, 2005

I can't get a handle on this

3 years of daytrading indexes and I’m still not able to enter a long on a clear, clear trend.

I saw the reversal, I had my finger on the mousebutton, I saw 601.60, 602, 604 printing, but I thought, s**t you missed it. Wait for a pullback.
Ticks 1488, ER 605.40
It will reverse and I will enter
606, 607 and running
Ticks still around 1300
Anti posting that 611 might be a reversal point. Me, I’m unable to go long 8 points above the bottom.
611 is the reversal, ER retraces to 609, my long order sitting at the 50%pb 608.50, and sit’s and sit’s …
New highs, Anti posting, that he will exit 615.70, still 3.50 points to go

Me, I’m sitting here and telling myself, that buying at the top, at the new high, 11 points above the low is foolish, that a retracement is imminent and that any Long I enter now will be The High of the Day

Acceptance sets in, it’s 9pm local time

I missed it again, I couldn’t go long a 14 point move in the ER2. I did not find 1 lousy entry point. I could not bring myself to press this Go Long button, always thinking, fearing, this is the Top

But you know what:
It was so often The Top, I paid too much buying a breakout, that I can throw it over board in such a move. I had a green day yesterday, I’m consistently profitable after such a long, long time. I’m not getting rich beyond imagination (yet), but I’m sticking around and I’m learning. Maybe next time or the time after or after, I will be able to take the trade. There is nothing lost by missing this move. I traded my plan and my plan does not include buying a breakout. It includes buying retracements, but chasing is not allowed. So a rare Run-away market, which looks so simple, so easy in hindsight, is outside of the parameters.

I missed this train, but it’s filed away, I know how it triggered and I might board it the next time. Just need to make sure, that I’m around for the next time.

Still I had to tell you, that a bit of frustration still lingers…

Relaxed trading

2 comments:

David_UK said...

Hi croc,

Thank you for showing that each of us as individuals are not the only ones to sometimes miss such glaringly 'obvious' directional moves as we had yesterday on the ER2('obvious' that is, always after the event).

As it happens I got some of the move (but baled out too early at 610.50) but for you to admit missing the entire move, in such a public way, takes honesty and guts... and I take my hat off to you.

Honesty and guts when combined when the keen analytical and enquiring mind that you have, will certainly see you here tomorrow and the next day and all the days thereafter! That is clear.

Your Blog and your contribution to the room is much appreciated, certainly by myself, but I am sure by many others in the room.

Keep posting.

David

Racer's Edge said...

Croc...One thing I keep in mind when trading is in every trend I can be wrong a minimum of 1 time, when it reverses. If I view my next trade as the one 'wrong trade' of the trend I can better adjust to closing that trade and hanging onto the trend. My view is, this is my only job, to hang onto the trend.