Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Illusion

Globetrader_37

As so often I started the day trading the spanish IBEX35 contract on MEFFRV. I like it, as it trades in the direction of the German DAX, which I use as guide and it usually trades quite fast.

But today I really got complacent. I took a long at 11100 and let it ran into the disaster Stop at -50. That really hurts for a first trade of the day I can tell you. Thinking after hours about the trade I now see what made me complacent, why I did not pull the trigger a lot earlier. We all are used to our charts, we know instinctively what range we see on the chart usually, and a quick glance on the chart showed me IBEX breaking the 34ema, the cci going positive, price flattening and then going up again and I took the trade. What I failed to see, was that this chart isn’t the usual IBEX35 chart. This chart shows an extraordinary 300 tick range in the IBEX of which the IBEX had made back 200 (85 in a Gap up open) when I placed my trade. Add to it a round number and the trade failed. I thought, well it will wiggle down and retest the round number and go further up. It wiggled in a kind. It wiggled 100 ticks down to 11095 only to make it up 150 again to 11159

Globetrader_38

I wasn’t able to close the day green, but I’m really glad, that I was able to close the day down “just” 3 ticks plus commissions. Staying in the trades is a real problem for me and one I have to work on. I reentered IBEX at 11015, but was stopped out on a more violent wiggle at +20 instead of holding it further to make the whole loss back. After that -as so often– I did not see a reentry in IBEX, even if (in hindsight) there were some on the smaller time frame charts.

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