Saturday, October 08, 2005


It really seems I’m the only one seeking answers to such mundane questions, like:

  • What is the best Stopsize for the contract I trade
  • What, if any, is the best Targetsize
  • Can I afford to trade the Trade-management strategy choosen, given my accountsize
  • Will a fully automated, mechanical approach to trading work
  • Do Scale-In and/or Scale-Out strategies work
  • If yes, where do I Scale-In or Scale-Out to improve the overall performance

To know, whether a certain Trademanagement System works, you don’t need to test your own Tradesystem. Actually it would mean a disadvantage, if you used your own tradesystem.

Why? Because the results are not comparable.

The mechanical approach I implemented in FuturesTrader on the other hand provides something like a 50% : 50% system. That’s like flipping a coin, but everytime you run it, you get the same result and would I use your parameters with the same datafile I would also get the same result as you got.

And a change in the Stop and Targetparameters can affect the results to the better or worse, so the system really is ideal to answer the questions above. Answers, which at least I don’t get from looking at my charts.

Of course, given that I have tradesignals on my Ensign-Charts and an already existing link between Ensign and Futures-Trader, I will sometime test my own tradesignals with this new Backtesting Tool. But only when I have found tradeparameters, where I know, that these are on average over the last year or even a longer period, the best parameters for the contracts I trade.

Yesterday Sport mentioned this blog in his own blog. And 3 times the visitors than usual came around to check it out. But all of you taking a look, seem to know the answers, or…you just don’t care. You don’t need to know, because for you it works already.

But statistics tell me otherwise. About 85% of all the daytraders are not profitable. And I really can’t believe, that only the 15% already winning traders are reading this blog. 

So obviously you don’t care about profitability. I received not one E-Mail asking me: “Hi Chris, I mainly trade ES, Bonds or stocks, like MSFT and my minute-files look like this. Could your tool support these?”

To tell the truth, I don’t care. I want to know, because I want to know that the statistics are in my favour, that I really have an edge, when I trade. So I will continue to develop the tools which give the answers I seek.