Monday, November 12, 2007

Analyzing an EUR/USD trade

I just went long EUR/USD 1.4653



And I covered 1.4654 right before Euro spiked to 1.4673.

I felt reminded of the coward wannabe warrior Brett Steenbarger reflected about in his weekend article "Reflections on the Trader as Warrior" (a must read or I wouldn't quote it)

Looking at my range chart you wouldn't have covered where I covered, there was no sign at all to exit the trade. Still I did it. Why?

Let's look at a 30second chart instead


Euro was hovering below 1.4655 for 15minutes already when i took the trade expecting a breakup. 1.4655 in the futures equals 1.4650 in the cash market so the euro was trading below the round resistance number and was unable to break through for 15 minutes. Add to that, that Euro/Yen was trading at 161.50, another round number at the same time and you get an idea, why the Euro wasn't able to break easily.

I was in the trade for 5 minutes, where the euro traded against my plan, not being able to break through resistance. Then it came up again to my entry only to get rejected again for another minute. That's when I placed the exit order, as now it "felt" as if resistance would hold and the euro would break really down, going in the direction of the overall trend, which started last Friday.

Writing this, the Euro made another swing, which I missed writing this article


That's ok, because I needed to analyze my feelings in this trade, to adjust my tradeplan for the future.

If there is round number resistance in the euro and you get the feeling, backed by time, that the trade won't work, narrow the Stop to -5 ticks. Don't go for the Breakeven Exit!