Thursday, November 08, 2007


I took the EUR/USD short at 1.4663


45min later I'm still in the trade and I have learned, that I shorted the lower end of the London opening range. Bummer!


A stop has been placed at -20 (1.4683). I still see the Euro down, but I don't want to stick with this trade, if a retest of 1.47 is in the cards prior to the ECB decision announcement.

It's a fight for every tick down to the 1.4650 cash level and it feels like a snap-back might happen any time. Well, I've recognized this feeling a few times already, it's as if the market is holding it's breath waiting to see which side will win. And I would be happy to wait for the winner, IF I had a short from the 1.4765 to 67 level. But as it is, I'm short from 1.4763, which makes my position most vulnerable to any snapback to at least -10 to -15 ticks. So it's 4.50$ for commissions vs paying something about 190$ / contract. The Risk:Reward in this trade has changed considerably within the last 60min, which I have been stuck with this position. That's why I did not wait for the usual BE+1 to exit the trade (one hour ago the bottom was 1.4662 in the futures) but took the 1.4663 when they were offered.

While I'm writing this the rest of the drame has played out: Bottom at 1.4659 and the Euro is trading up again.