Monday, October 15, 2007

Monday, October 15th

Watching currencies this morning

Long NZD 0.7691

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AUD is up 22, NZD is down 20. One is right. As AUD is trading up this morning with USD weakness showing, I took the long signal from support.

Out -5, the trade is not working

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Short AUD 0.9028 then. 17 below the multi-year highs at 0.9045, CAD ticking down, NZD down as mentioned above and the upswing looks like it might come to an end (if it's range trading right now)

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Gold making new highs in an impressive run

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Watching for a reversal

Short Gold 759.9

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Stop above the alltime high

08:34 AUD starting to fall, Gold staying at my entry (Times in CEST which is 6h ahead of EST. These are the timestamps seen on my charts as well)

 Looking at AUD there is a big support zone from 0.9015 downto 0.9005

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and we actually bounced from that support. A potential +12 is going back to BE atm. There are political rreasons why AUD should see some weakness in the future, but who am I to analyze this. Still we are pre the London open, so maybe I should give AUD room until after the UK open to see where we headed.

To tell the truth, I didn't expect Gold to make a new high from that consolidation, as in my experience you need a drop first to shake some longs out and get a few shorts in, before running to new highs with enough momentum.

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My stop is at 15 ticks (reduced from the 20 ticks I used to use)

The London open gives me AUD ticking up again (should have taken the +12 it seems) and the CAD showing signs of life as well

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Patience Chris....1h into the trades and net to net a zero sum position

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Just seeing something, which might worth be watching for.

I talked about a support zone in AUD above. Let's see if these elipses have a time component as well. Meaning: Does a support zone weaken with time passing

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Short the weak, go long the strong. AUD and NZD proving that again. NZD is down over 20 from my exit now, while AUD (which was up in the morning) still refuses to break

Stopped in AUD and Gold...broadbased Dollar weakness this morning with Euro gaining 50 ticks

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Double Top in AUD...Short 0.9040

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Short Gold 761.2

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stopped at 762.2...yes I'm going countertrend, I know, but we had a major upmove overnight and ZG "should" retrace some of that at least. So far the USD weakness prevails

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CAD futures trading down despite the move in Oil and Gold. Makes me wonder, if we are near some bottoms or peaks, if the strongest of the strong currencies begins to falter

Long CAD 82

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Now that one is with the longer term trend. Let's see if it takes over into the US session open

CAD getting no momentum for 5 minutes...I'm out and to the sidelines at BE+1

Short Gold 760.8

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Stopped Gold -5, bounces from the 34ema

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Short AUD 0.9838

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Stopped -5, I might be cutting it too narrow now

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but if a downtrend develops it should not trade up again

Short QM 84.950 (watching CL here, as it has the higher volume)

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Cover QM +1 on a CL bounce

I don't get it today and I'm questioning every tradesetup I see. It might be the better decision to stop for a while to get back in tune with this market

OK, frustrating as it may be, obviously I had a stop too small in AUD. The bar which stopped me has been marked

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ZG on the other hand broke out to 764.5 after I was stopped

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So what's the difference? AUD had already made a new high, while Gold was consolidating in an upward channel, so in Gold it was a breakout trade, while in AUD it was a weak bounce when other currencies were going down as well.

Long CL 92

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Stop 72 about to be hit.

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It sure feels like I can't get it correct today

Out 93 ... and yes I should have stayed in

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we got that retest of the highs at 85.16 I was looking for when i entered the trade after CL made a double bottom at the 84.75 area. Hmm, should be glad I did not get stopped out I guess

Short QM 85.300

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Short Gold 761

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Stopped in Gold

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Exit QM +8 (after I added at 85.500)

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Can you get it all wrong on one day...YES you can...today was one of those days, where I got it all wrong, where I traded against strong trends and got shaken out again and again and again

1 comment:

FX said...

I got to say that it's a very big thing that you were disciplined and got out early from every losing trade.