Friday, October 19, 2007

October 19th

G7 is starting today and going into that meeting over the last week and especially yesterday we've seen just one thing: USD weakness

Euro trading to new highs, but somehow the move looks exagerated. Minutes ago the Euro managed to trade to new highs at 1.4319...in a spike sold off strongly. Looking at the daily Euro chart there is no 50% retracement, there isn't even a 38.2% retracement of that huge move, which started in August 07.

Yesterday night I saw a consolidation in the swissie after it made a new low at 1.1660. Expecting some short covering I went long the USD/CHF (actually I traded the CHF futures short, but that is in fact the same as going long 125.000USD against the swissie at the equivalent of 1.1695 USD/CHF which is 0.8580 in the futures)

I added this morning at 0.8605 for an average 0.8593 short (which is about 1.1683 USD/CHF FX long)

Globetrader_28

The trade starts to look better now, but I'm not out of the woods

Double bottom now at 1.1656. I refrain from adding a third contract. Adding within the current consolidation range to get a better average entry while the trade idea itself is still valid is one thing. But never forget: the trade is still a loser, so adding just to lower the average entry isn't the way to go.

Stopped on that trade for a tick. There is a lot of support in the chart now and the momentum did not favor a clear breakdown (run-up to the 1.17FX level) So I took 1 off at 0.8592 to get more room and placed a narrow BE+1 stop for the remainder after I had a 5 tick profit. We bounced from the 62.8% retracement line/Bollinger band and I'm out looking for a better entry into the trade.

Globetrader_30

 Interesting fact I just noticed while looking at the CL volume for the november and december contract. First CL seems to have rolled to december as the volume this morning in the december contract is higher than in the november contract. So I will be trading December from now on. But what's really interesting is, that while the Light sweet crude december contract trades at about a 1.50$ discount to the november contract, the Heating Oil contract for december trades at a 2cent premium to november. Sure there is that small little fact that the weather is usually colder in december than in november, but nonetheless you need crude to make Heating oil, so the calendar spread should be on the same side. At least that's how I see it.

Btw. That CHF trade I did...a great trade idea gone down the sink by a dumb exit

Globetrader_31

Shit...I'm still doing these dumb impulsive trades...felt I missed the move and shorted the pair being least down on the current move

Cost me a 43 tick stop on GBP/USD

Globetrader_33

It was such a nice long on a double bottom...but I just did not see it in time

Long FTSE 6650

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Out +12 ticks. It seems the market is trying to pin the FTSE futures to the 6650 strike. Despite a 15 point rise in the DAX futures the FTSE managed to trade just 5 points up. DAX just hit the 7900 cash strike, so I'm out

Globetrader_33

and it seems the feeling wasn't so bad after all

Globetrader_36

FTSE long 6646.5

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Sometimes I feel like this is just one big manipulated market and someone is out to get me. Spikes in all markets but the one I'm in is down and staying down

Globetrader_03

Out for a tick ... and yes it starts to go up slowly on absolutly no volume sofar

Globetrader_38

already breaking again with DAX, YM, ES and ER2 making new highs of the day

Long FTSE at 6621

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US getting weak into the open, exit +1

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Long FTSE 6595 Exit 6600.5 (bounce from the lows with US market bouncing as well)

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Long ER2 799.10 Exit 799.4 (no bounce above 800 so I exited)

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Long YM 13575, Add-on 13535 (Average 13555)

Globetrader_43

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