Thursday, October 11, 2007

Thursday, October 11th

Answered some mail first. Then off to the state of the market as it is presented to me this morning.

Asia is green...what else would you expect after that last hour rally in the US....we had that a few months back happening for over 2 weeks in a row in the US markets, if I remember correctly...Selling in the morning and after 2 pm or 3 pm EST huge waves of buying started to come in to close the market unchanged or even up for the day. Be on the lookout for that pattern as a lot of money could be made riding these buying waves as long as they lasted.

The Euro is up, the British Pound is down...interesting E/G is slowly trading up to the 0.70 level again

Here is the daily chart on the Euro/GBP and it sure looks like a long to me

Globetrader_90

Long Cad 1.0200

Globetrader_91

Noticed AUD FX trading up above the 0.90 level, Euro is up, Gold and Oil are up, so CAD, as the strongest of the commodity currencies should trade up as well. This gives me the trade bias (short U/C or as the futures trade inverse to the cash market Long CAD Z7)

CAD is still in a range, CAD FX is above the 0.9800FX support in the 0.9800 to 0.9825 consolidation range and with my trade I go for a retest and break of that level. I would like to see a break of yesterdays high area at 1.0213-17.

Interesting, how currencies trade this morning

Globetrader_08

As you can see there is this obvious shift between E/G, also AUD is considerably up for an Asian session. NZD is following, which isn't surprising. Seeing RY up (that's the E/J futures contract, thin but with market makers present) this tells me, that traders waited for the BOJ decision to stay put before taking more E/J carry trades.

CAD made a double top at the moment. That's to be expected on a first spike...now we talking business

Globetrader_93

Exit at +20

Globetrader_94

1.0265 will be a short area (below 0.9750 U/C FX), a retest of 1.0210 might give a long at 1.0215

BTW as futures tend to reveal not the whole truth about a break of an important FX level, that's the screen I'm actually watching, when deciding to exit the trade or not

Globetrader-209

And the important line is the one labelled CAD, which gives me the current USD/CAD FX rate from IB's Idealpro datafeed, which has a variable spread, as IB offers no "free" FX trades at a fixed spread, but gives you what is actually available at the interbank rates, they deal with.

That CAD trade let me miss the FTSE open...it was worth it I guess, but let's take a look

Globetrader_97

Yep I missed a nice runup

Did I mention, that I'm kinda pissed on oil...now it's out in the open...bugger

Globetrader_98

Back to the FTSE, it should go down 10 and bounce up...it seems it's not following that script

Globetrader_99

BTW. You interested in these Fib-Tool settings? First take a look at CAC40 (the french index traded at the MONEP in Paris 5€/tick)

Globetrader_99

I work with a H/L move happening from 17:34 to 19:30 yesterday ...and take a look at what you get using my Fib-Tool settings...Todays High is right at the green line marking the first target from a move resulting from this H/L range. it's neither the first time this can be seen, nor will it be the last, I'm sure of that. So here are the settings if you have Ensign and like to try yourself

Globetrader_04

Missed the FTSE bounce writing this stuff... but it started right from the green target line I had marked yesterday

Globetrader_06

Missing a move in one contract might still give you an opportunity in another contract. I looked at EOE V7 (which is the Netherland index traded in Amsterdam on the FTA with 10€/tick)

Globetrader_08

But it's really weak at the moment compared to the FTSE

Tata...I adjusted the Fib-Tool to yesterdays correct H/L range from the 15:30 low to the 17:38 high

Globetrader_10

which gives you today.....

Globetrader_11

...the first target line at 6717.50 and a high in the FTSE sofar at 6716.50...I can live with that margin

forgot to check the FTSE cash and 6750 futures was 6700 cash...that selloff was to be expected

Globetrader_12

A daily FTSE reveals the target at 6822.50, might still take a few days though

Globetrader_13

BB after 1pm CEST

Short CAD 1.0261 (or U/C 0.9750 FX long)

Globetrader_14

Cover CAD +20

Globetrader_15

Exit based on 34ema support and that no retest of the highs has happened sofar

FTSE not coming to papa (for now)....and when it's there I don't want it:-)...an often seen feeling followed by regret of not following the original tradeplan

Globetrader_16

...as I said above...but ...You should never short a slow, dull market on a mission

Globetrader_17

It was different with CAD above. There we spiked into a natural support in new territory and we bounced as expected. Compared to that FTSE is taking one step at a time and you always expect a big order spiking the market into exhaustion...then I take it short, not now

Short CAD 1.0266

Globetrader_18

scratched +3 ticks, entry was late

Globetrader_19

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