Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Wednesday, October 10th

That's the picture I'm looking at this morning in the indexes

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Asia is strongly up (again)

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Now the first question is: Does this run continue or do we consolidate. The strong run in the YM and the DAX we saw yesterday happened after the Close of the other European markets after 2pm EST (20:00 on my charts). So neither the CAC40 (French index) nor the EOE (Amsterdam index) have made that move yet. CAC40 opened with a  11 point GAP up, as most of the runup had been made into the announcement and close of the CAC40 at 20:00. The EOE closes at 17:30 and I see some selling into the close on this contract. So it should open with a big Gap-up. But it opened with just 1.50 points up. A second look on the DAX tells me, that the run-up after the FOMC minutes went only slightly higher than the previous made daily high. Same on the EOE with the Gap-up open. A slightly higher high is made and now we are retracing.

Now I added my Fib-tool to get some idea of standard retracement levels

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Will see where we go from there. At 9:00 am CEST I will replace the CAC40 with the FTSE.

As Monday was Columbus day in the US, there will be no oilreport today. The release is tommorrow. (Some newswires have that incorrect in their table of events)

Oil is ticking up I notice

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Next I look at http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp to see, if the weather gods have sent a new hurricane....and correct...not all is quiet at the western front

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Will be watching that one, but trading oil in the morning is often like water torture. Tick by...by....by....by tick....

In the meantime CAD is making a run at 0.9800 (1.0210 in the futures)

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That's very regular, nothing like an exhaustion spike should look, so I will stand aside for now, having a short order in the market at 1.0265. That's the level most exhaustion spikes have reached, when they started from the 10 to 25 level.

Hmmm....maybe I should take it long once in a while...trading against such a strong trend is really kinda foolish

U/J moving up again...that means G/J and E/J should move as well and trading these cross-currencies in a clear trend is for sure rewarding. Take a look at my Intermarket Relationship article to get an idea of the math involved.

On a side note...I'm impressed, that IB considers me omni-language savvy...Chinese CAD news...I'm sure it's important...unfortunatly I can't read it:-(

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G/J trading near 239.50...a resistance level, G/U just below 2.04, U/J 10 ticks below 117.50. There is room to the upside on G/J to 240 before I expect a retracement as all three markets will hit upside resistance. ..No trade for me there, especially as I'm not actively following that market

Back to CAD and the FTSE, which is about to open

The opening hour in DAX, CAC40 and the EOE told me, that I'm expecting some consolidation of the big move from yesterday. So Gap-up in the FTSE to 6690-95

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But then not a big retracement as seen on this 15min chart. Instead this might better describe it

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open at 6671, weaker than expected to tell the truth

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So retest of the highs and short on the retracement...DAX is weak already

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Long FTSE 78

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Wasn't that yesterday's theme? 72 would have been a FT long entry, not 78!

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stopped 63..shit

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maybe I should follow my own tradeplan next time!

Long CAD 1.0203

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Long 550.20

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Got fooled by upspikes in the FTSE and DAX

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Might as well admit that I'm not in tune with the market today it seems

FTSE weakest of the european indexes at the moment

Cover BE+1, indexes still too weak

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Yes, yes...CAD went down to the 34ema and bounced....

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Ohh you of little faith ... in your setups...Another one for the "BE+1 exit" is a BS rule column

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10:30am it is. Watch for reversals around this time in the morning

CAD stop is at 1.0205, extremly narrow. So either it works now or I'm out

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CAD couldn't spike above the highs, I'm out BE+1

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We have a double top now, so it was a reasonable exit

Long Oil 80.10

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Need to leave the computer for 45minutes. Stop at 13, target at 35Globetrader_80

That .20 level is resistance for now and LII is starting to look like a bull trap

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Out 80.26 after I missed the exit at .31 and sellvolume was coming in

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Will continue most likely, but I have to go for 1h

12:30...the next timeframe to look for a reversal

Long 748.5

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Exit +12 at resistance

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Resistance was broken, while my entry would have been safe, left 20 on the table

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Still this Gold trade means I'm back to breakeven on the day prior to the US open

Impulsive Long 80.44, momentum did not follow for a 80.50 break

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Does it remind you of my FTSE long from this morning? ...me too!!!

Bugger out -40...yes I'm an idiot and yes it's the reason why I'm trading in a range with my account

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And I hate it even more, when I get the direction right

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