Friday, October 05, 2007

October 5th


Short planned on a false breakout above 35, did not happen. Now looking for a bounce from the 38.2% retracement line around 10, which would be a Gap-Fill as well. Don't know if I will do a trade at all in the equities at all this morning prior to the NFP-news release.


Gold made the first target to the tick on a daily chart. The second target is beyond 800 at 816. As written yesterday a retest of the breakout area at 716-710 would be preferable, but depending on the NFP-numbers we might already have seen the lows.



Long 30.5 for a possible break of the range. Exit 30.5 when neither DAX nor CAC40 made any attempt to tick higher


They say: Don't short a dull markt...well...better make that: Don't trade a dull market

Long 20 Stop 5 you can see the trade is a bit hairy right now


Prudence and the trade plan tells me to exit at 20.5, if I get it


Exit -10 ticks  Dax, CAC40, YM, ER2 ticking down and FTSE following, 100c traded at 15.5, so I took the exit at 15


Missed that one in between


Looking to short 74


Short 60


FTSE now at my entry I said: don't trade a dull market, target at 35 missed by 2 ticks in a suddenly very volatile market


Target at 0.9875FX, maybe not such a good idea..

stop to 48 ... Globetrader_16

and stopped +12 on the trade...watching it starting to fall now...still... look at the first move down and see how that second one is cut off by a lot of support at the 40 to 45 level...There might be a further spike in CAD

Did I mention the accuracy of my Fib-Target calculator? The high in CAD was 67, calculated target was 70 and all that was calculated from the High to Low range measured the last 2 days.

Btw.: Had I taken the H/L range from October 2nd, which would have made the breaks on October 3rd to the downside false ones, the calculated target would have been 1.0166 ...kinda impressive don't you think....ah yes my initial target of 25 ticks on that short trade earlier is about to be hit...I have a lot to learn


Shit, writing about losses isn't funny

Long FTSE at 48 on that bounce...Merril announced and 5 sec later I was stopped -15...I hate these trades going immediatly against you can see the FTSE recovered, but I wasn't in


Long CL 03 exit 25 on the small retracement...fine trade, should have held longer, but these fast markets keep me on my toes...especially after taking a hit like that on the FTSE


Short 205 Exit 185 for +20


Back to green after that FTSE disaster ... and yes I had lowered my target on the short side after that first CAD short. I also had a second short at 1.0225 in the market which wasn't hit, as you can see. The reasoning for that add-on at a loss, which it would have been was, that CAD would have been up nearly 200 ticks, if that 1.0225 would have been hit, and that's extreme. That would be extreme for the Euro and it is for sure extreme for the CAD.



Short CAD at 1.0200 if 1.0210 holds and CAD bounces, otherwise have a Short CAD at 1.0230 in the market with add-on at 1.0255. Reason being, that we are looking at the 3rd test of the highs, which should break them, if it's about to happen at all


Short CAD 15


If you trade currency futures, always have the FX market available. IB gives you the quotes and there is no reason to have them not on screen. USD/CAD is again above 0.9800 which was broken to the downside on that last spike to 1.0225.

It's getting late here, the last spike took us to 1.0212 and I'm feeling a bit exhausted. Stop to 1.0213. I don't want to exit at 8 ticks, I don't want to let this trade run into red territory either, even if it might retrace it all after 6pm CEST (the London close) so let's keep it open and take 1 or 2 ticks if the stop is hit. The 0.9800FX level should hold now or I don't want that trade any longer.

Exit 1.0199 for +16 London close coming up and USD/CAD stopped trading down, seems to prepare for another run-up


GOTCHA you buggers


Here is your spike. So CAD ticking down, starting to hesitate and it seems as if the market is holding it's breath. Once you notice that, be prepared for a reversal

This most likely is the last post for the day, as I will stop now and go into the weekend. I'm feeling tired, hungry and I had a nice end for the week.

Even if I was down for the day after that FTSE stop, I managed to turn the results around and end up above my daily target. Something which eleuded me for quite some time.

I think writing this realtime blog, posting the charts is helping me to focus. Be prepared for more...