Monday, October 08, 2007

Monday, October 8th

A new week, Asia indices up big, I'm watching CAD and AUD at the moment, which both trade near or at the highs in the futures market. CNBC talking about individual companies, I'm tuning it out.

8:00 am CEST Dax and CAC40 holding their Friday close levels. I don't expect a lot to happen within the next hour, back to the currecies.

Globetrader_01

AUD and NZD are up, I'm expecting some retracement on the AUD, so short on that one at 0.8998.

Globetrader_29

That was a fast spikedown, missed the fill below 88, as I was actually concentrating on writing the blog and my target order at 0.8977 wasn't hit. Still +12 on a 5 second trade isn't something to ignore.

CAD and AUD got hit at the same time. AUD FX is at 0.9014 now, my target is above the 0.90FX level so I keep the order.

Thinking about putting the initial target of a trade at +12. If the trade takes time to develop, I have enough time to move the target out, but spikes like the one in AUD should be taken I think. We trade at 0.8992 atm and hold the level, considering adding around my entry or placing a stop at BE+1.

0.9014 AUD FX is support for now

Listening to Ann Keren, beautiful but slow music, not really calming, when in a trade...I'm not as relaxed as I like to be in a trade:-)

out +12 at 0.8986, I saw that small double bottom with the 0.9012 FX level holding

Globetrader_30

AUD is breaking further now. Trading 2c I might have held a runner, but with one contract open, it was not a wrong decision for the week open trade. A minute later and AUD is trading again at 0.8992, so I got the exit near the low, that hesitancy of the price dropping further was real after all.

Gumpie playing Alice, who the f**k is Alice, is getting me in a better mood :-)

Here's the list of contracts I'm watching

Globetrader-205

I dropped Gold for the moment, as it's usually not moving a lot in the morning in favor of the FTSE, which I like to look at at the open

Globetrader_00

Indices trading below Friday's highs. Asia is up big, still SPI sold off afterhours, so I don't expect a lot to happen. Z (FTSE futures) opened above 6650, trading below now. A bounce from 6640-42 is what I look for now, as I still have an upward bias and Z likes to retrace 10 points in such an environement.

CAD FX trading down to the 0.98 level again. Removing the Short 1.0225 order and keeping the short 1.0255 order, as I can't watch 2 markets

FTSE bounce...too fast for me

Globetrader_32

Too be honest, writing interfered here with my watching the markets

6650 in the Z futures equals 6600 in the cash market. Seeing that resistance already forming in the chart

Short CAD 1.0198

Globetrader_33

Normally I wait for the first red bar to appear... Euro was down below the morning hour lows, AUD is down now as well ... still I'm not sure

Now...that looks kinda better for my position

Globetrader_34

Target is 77 or 1 tick above current support. With the market this slow I doubt at the moment that we will go there

Still I notice Gold has been falling from 745 to 743.9 since I opened my CAD trade...sure better than doing the opposite;-)

25 minutes in the trades, I'm up 2 ticks, Euro is still weak, AUD is showing signs of support...Do I have a better trade idea...no (FTSE in a 5point  range around the 6600 cash level, no gold or oil trade present, AUD above 0.90 FX level) ...CAD Stoplimit at 1.0197 won't help as it will get jumped, the market is too thin right now...Euro ticking down further...I'm sticking to the trade

0.9825 FX will be resistance...(it was the same with the 0.9925 level which was defended aggressively last week) ... +6 ticks and a second red bar just appeared

Euro down below 1.4100FX (that's 1.4120 in the futures) on a fast move...trading the wrong currency it seems

Globetrader_35

Monday usually has no important news, especially as we have Columbus day today in the US, still never forget to check the news releases for the day: Derivatecheck

That spike to 1.0197 nearly got me out. Inadvertently I placed a StopLimit instead of a Limitorder at 1.0197 and I wasn't hit as that level immediatly sold off again

Globetrader_36

But there is no denying it...this trade shouldn't have made a new blue bar...up again 5 ticks and staying short for the moment. The previous spike went down to 88...I won't cut my targets to 10 ticks...been there, done that...it just won't finance the loosers I have to add to my trading plan as something totally natural

10:03am AUD is spiking up, CAD is holding it's breath

Globetrader-206

someone took the 4 contracts at 1.0195...I'm out +2 at 1.0196

AUD sold off again, CAD holding at 1.0198, it was the right decision as I no longer have a short on my chart

Globetrader_37

CAD made a lower high and traded down after I covered. It's a slow morning now and with the US on holiday, I don't expect much to happen around noon.

Globetrader_38

Long Oil 79.74

Globetrader_39

High volume trading between 79.71 and 79.78. Trade felt wrong the moment it was on, still I waited for 3minutes, the feeling stayed with me and I scratched it at 79.75

Would have worked in the end, but as you can see, the POC did move down to 79.78 giving me confirmation that price could now break either way fast.

Globetrader_40

 

Saw but did not take the Gold trade at 740. It was the clearer signal, with the higher low and the double bottom in place.

Globetrader_42

Done for the day I guess. Going to play a round of tennis

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